NBA Play-In 2026 Bracket Math

We had a 10-seed make the playoffs for the first time last year, but still have never seen the 7 seed miss the playoffs with two chances to win one home game to get in.

This year doesn't look that much different, as the two 7 seeds have the best odds to get in. 

The East throws maybe the biggest wrench here - Charlotte is the first 9 or 10 seed in my model to have better than a 50/50 shot to take one of the two playoff spots, as they have the 7th (!!!) highest rating in the entire NBA, yet have to go 2-0 to make it. If Philadelphia loses their first game without Embiid, it's very possible they get caught by a red hot Charlotte team in a do-or-die game later this week.

Seed	Team	Rating	7 Seed	8 Seed	Playoffs
7	Philadelphia 76ers	0.031	53.9%	16.6%	70.5%
8	Orlando Magic	0.091	46.1%	20.8%	66.9%
9	Charlotte Hornets	0.599	0.0%	52.7%	52.7%
10	Miami Heat	0.086	0.0%	9.9%	9.9%
7	Phoenix Suns	0.232	66.2%	21.6%	87.8%
8	Portland Trail Blazers	0.022	33.8%	36.1%	69.9%
9	Los Angeles Clippers	0.167	0.0%	33.8%	33.8%
10	Golden State Warriors	-0.193	0.0%	8.5%	8.5%