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Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Are the Cubs Really Bad Because of Day Games?

Last night David Ortiz (of the Boston Red Sox) cited the high amount of day games the Cubs play as the reason their performance is consistently poor. I sought to check whether their results in day games actually back this theory.

I went back 6 years to 2009, the year after they last made the playoffs. They actually played better in day games: in day games, they had a win percentage of 0.452, and in night games, 0.429. Hypothesis testing that day games are worse for the Cubs than night games resulted in a p-value of 0.2389: meaning that there's only a 23.89% chance Ortiz is correct, although we can't definitively conclude he's wrong either.

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