Running One Simulation on the NCAA Tournament... Just One

Much is made about simulating the bracket again and again: Prediction Machine does it 50,000 times, I did it 10,000 times for the ACC Tournament last year, etc. But this gives you the most likely bracket, which illustrates what should happen, but definitely not exactly what will happen.

You only play the tournament once, so here's an alternative take: only simulating the tournament once. I used my MDS Model probabilities and my trusty ole TI-84 calculator to generate the random numbers. Again, this is one simulation, so there are some interesting results:

• Kentucky loses in the second round to Cincinnati
• West Virginia makes the final
• Villanova's path is basically cleared to win the whole thing (and they do so)
• The West goes 100% chalk (by my ratings at least)

You have to make some bold predictions to win the office pool, and get lucky. Going chalk can put you above average, but it won't get you first place.

Here's the full bracket, based on one simulation:

You can generate simulations one at a time using Massey's Ratings here.