2019 ACC Bracket Math

It's March! And the ACC tournament being moved forward a day has thrown me off again (thanks John Swofford!)

Here are the tournament ratings and probabilities anyway, using a composite of the Massey Composite and Kenpom:

Seed	Team	Rating
1	Virginia	0.919
2	North Carolina	0.874
3	Duke	0.892
4	Florida St.	0.826
5	Virginia Tech	0.844
6	Syracuse	0.781
7	Louisville	0.817
8	North Carolina St.	0.788
9	Clemson	0.795
10	Georgia Tech	0.684
11	Boston College	0.677
12	Miami FL	0.720
13	Wake Forest	0.616
14	Pittsburgh	0.685
15	Notre Dame	0.698

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Virginia	100.00%	100.00%	75.00%	53.07%	33.67%
8	North Carolina St.	100.00%	48.99%	12.06%	5.36%	1.98%
9	Clemson	100.00%	51.01%	12.94%	5.88%	2.22%
4	Florida St.	100.00%	100.00%	52.77%	18.91%	8.02%
5	Virginia Tech	100.00%	71.39%	38.05%	14.75%	6.72%
12	Miami FL	61.56%	19.82%	6.96%	1.66%	0.48%
13	Wake Forest	38.44%	8.79%	2.22%	0.37%	0.08%
2	North Carolina	100.00%	100.00%	65.85%	34.24%	16.57%
7	Louisville	100.00%	66.56%	26.00%	10.79%	4.11%
10	Georgia Tech	48.31%	15.78%	3.74%	0.98%	0.23%
15	Notre Dame	51.69%	17.66%	4.41%	1.21%	0.30%
3	Duke	100.00%	100.00%	73.38%	43.28%	22.67%
6	Syracuse	100.00%	62.57%	18.91%	7.35%	2.45%
11	Boston College	49.09%	18.16%	3.68%	1.01%	0.23%
14	Pittsburgh	50.91%	19.27%	4.02%	1.13%	0.27%

Note that I'm not using any kind of adjustment to categorize Charlotte (this year's site) as a "semi-home" for Dook or Carolina. Even so, Virginia is not as large a favorite as last year since both of those powerhouses are also so good this year (three 1 seeds??). Those 3 teams combine to win this tournament about 3/4 of the time.