Before the 2020 election, I concluded that the rate of voter fraud was so low that it was extremely unlikely to affect the outcome - and the only scenario in which it could, would be if the election was unfathomably close - 2000 Bush/Gore close.
And that didn't happen. But the election was close in the electoral college, with 3 states once again deciding the presidency: Georgia (+0.3%), Arizona (+0.3%), and Wisconsin (+0.6%) account for 37 electoral votes, which would have resulted in a 269-269 tie, which would have almost certainly gone Trump's way (in effect, tie goes to the Republican, based on the current geographical distribution of votes). In fact, the margin in those 3 states was actually closer than in 2016 - making this election the second-closest (electorally), behind only 2000.
And with turnout at its highest since 1900, applying the estimated rates of voter fraud to the larger turnout and narrower margin... still doesn't swing the election. Updated close electoral college margins:
- 2020
- Deciding states: Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia
- Margin in deciding states (3): 43,809 votes
- Fraud estimate (Max): 31,679 votes
- Fraud estimates (Meta-Estimate): 1,415 votes
- 2016
- Deciding states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan
- Margin in deciding states (3): 77,744 votes
- Fraud estimate (Max): 27,357 votes
- Fraud estimate (Meta-Estimate): 1,222 votes
- 1976
- Deciding states: Wisconsin, Ohio
- Margin in deciding states (2): 44,578 votes
- Fraud estimate (Max): 16,321 votes
- Fraud estimate (Meta-Estimate): 729 votes
- 2000
- Deciding states: Florida
- Margin in deciding state (1): 537 votes
- Fraud estimate (Max): 21,119 votes
- Fraud estimate (Meta-Estimate) 943 votes
Updated table, with sources:
| Rate | 1 in... | Equivalent in 2020 | % of Pop Vote Margin | % of Electoral Margin | Source # |
| 0.02% | 5,000 | 31,679 | 0.02% | 72.31% | 1 |
| 0.007313% | 13,675 | 11,583 | 0.007% | 26.44% | 2 |
| 0.00614% | 16,284 | 9,727 | 0.006% | 22.20% | 3 |
| 0.002548% | 39,247 | 4,036 | 0.003% | 9.21% | 4 |
| 0.0025% | 40,000 | 3,960 | 0.003% | 9.04% | 5 |
| 0.0001713% | 583,722 | 271 | 0.0002% | 0.62% | 6 |
| 0.0001% | 1,000,000 | 158 | 0.0001% | 0.36% | 7 |
| 0.00009032% | 1,107,143 | 143 | 0.0001% | 0.33% | 8 |
| 0.00008741% | 1,144,093 | 138 | 0.0001% | 0.32% | 9 |
| 0.00006% | 1,666,667 | 95 | 0.0001% | 0.22% | 10 |
| 0.00001% | 10,000,000 | 16 | 0.00001% | 0.04% | 11 |
| 0.0000031% | 32,258,065 | 5 | 0.000003% | 0.01% | 12 |
| 0.000002924% | 34,196,797 | 5 | 0.000003% | 0.01% | 13 |
| 0.00000017% | 588,235,294 | 0.27 | 0.0000002% | 0.0006% | 14 |
| 0.00000013% | 769,230,769 | 0.21 | 0.0000001% | 0.0005% | 15 |
| 0.00089304% | 111,977 | 1,222 | 0.0409% | 1.57% |
It then naturally follows that Biden's popular vote margin is nowhere close to the above fraud estimates:
| Election | Popular Vote MOV | % of Margin (Max) | % of Margin (Estimate) |
| 2020 | 7,059,800 | 0.45% | 0.02% |
| 2016 | 2,984,757 | 0.92% | 0.04% |
| 2012 | 5,081,900 | 0.50% | 0.02% |
| 2008 | 9,550,176 | 0.27% | 0.01% |
| 2004 | 4,078,211 | 0.59% | 0.03% |
| 2000 | 530,893 | 3.98% | 0.18% |
| 1996 | 8,203,716 | 0.21% | 0.01% |
| 1992 | 5,805,339 | 0.29% | 0.01% |
| 1988 | 7,077,523 | 0.26% | 0.01% |
| 1984 | 16,878,120 | 0.11% | 0.00% |
| 1980 | 8,423,115 | 0.19% | 0.01% |
| 1976 | 1,683,247 | 0.97% | 0.04% |
| 1972 | 17,995,488 | 0.08% | 0.00% |
But turnout was historic, as noted earlier - is that evidence of fraud with so many more voters than four years ago? The number of votes jumped 15.8% compared to 2016! Which... is not even the highest increase in the past 20 years: from 2000 to 2004 there were 15.87% more votes cast.
The 2018 midterms had a historic rise too, gaining 44.7% compared to 2014. So how many more voters voted in the presidential election, relative to the most recent midterms? That turnout metric was up 38.9% compared to 2018! Which... is the lowest midterm-to-presidential increase since 2000. The next closest is 2012 (presidential) vs 2010 (midterms), which grew 48.8%.
In chart form, the record-breaking turnout doesn't even appear that out of line with recent trends:
No matter which trend is challenged, the conclusion holds: the rate of voter fraud did not change the outcome of the election.
No comments:
Post a Comment