Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2022)

 Going in to Thursday's games, here's what it looks like:

Seed	Team	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
1	Gonzaga	75.82%	51.62%	36.88%	25.34%
4	Arkansas	24.18%	9.89%	4.47%	1.89%
3	Texas Tech	49.88%	19.17%	10.37%	5.30%
2	Duke	50.12%	19.32%	10.47%	5.37%
8	North Carolina	32.47%	13.13%	3.40%	1.16%
4	UCLA	67.53%	38.75%	16.17%	8.30%
3	Purdue	86.70%	46.03%	18.06%	8.80%
15	Saint Peter's	13.30%	2.08%	0.19%	0.02%
1	Arizona	55.45%	34.46%	21.76%	10.98%
5	Houston	44.55%	25.36%	14.75%	6.67%
11	Michigan	33.95%	10.15%	4.19%	1.21%
2	Villanova	66.05%	30.03%	17.04%	7.46%
1	Kansas	73.10%	56.06%	30.05%	14.54%
4	Providence	26.90%	14.66%	4.44%	1.17%
11	Iowa St.	51.47%	15.37%	4.16%	0.97%
10	Miami (FL)	48.53%	13.91%	3.60%	0.80%

Still Gonzaga's tournament to lose, but now Kansas is favored to come out of the other half. The winner of Arizona/Houston might jump them, as that is a massive top matchup in the Sweet 16.

42% chance at least one double-digit seed makes the Final Four at this point (most likely - Iowa St).

Up to a 1 in 40 chance Duke/Carolina meets in the tournament, and a 1 in 20 chance this national nightmare doesn't end.