Curry Will Likely Break His Own NBA Finals Record (If the Series Goes 7)

In 2015, I wrote "Stephen Curry Will Likely Break Danny Green's NBA Finals Record". And he did! One season later, in 2016. Curry hit 25 threes in a 6 game series in 2015, falling short of Green's 2013 record of 27. I had him pegged at 88% to best 27 if the series went 6 games; instead, he hit 32 in the 7 game series in 2016.

And that's where the record stands going in to Game 6 of the 2022 NBA Finals. Curry is at 25 through 5 games, and needs 8 more to break his own record (7 more to tie).

Similar to 7 years ago, I simulated each remaining game 10,000 times, and can follow through how many times Curry gets 8 or more.

Once again, I will proclaim that Curry will likely break his own NBA Finals record... if the series goes 7. There's a ~0.2% chance he does it in just Game 6 - and he has hit 9 threes before in a Finals game, which the simulator gives a small 0.02% chance of happening on the road, in Boston, against the best defense in the league.

Interestingly, there were only 3 sim runs at home in which he hits 0 threes. This translates to a 0.03% chance of Game 5's aberration.

But if the series goes 7, he's up to a 52.7% chance of making 8 or more over two games and breaking his record. Add in 22.9% that he hits 7 exactly, and he's at 75.5% to at least tie himself if the series goes back to San Francisco.