Bowl Probabilities + CFP Final Matchups

Bowl season is upon us, and with it comes a lot of lopsided matchups. The model disagrees with a lot of the public lines, but first we'll look at the CFP matchups:

Team A	Team B	Date	Rating A	Rating B	Pred Line	Log5	Pred Winner	Line
CFP Semifinals
Michigan	TCU	12/31/22	22.68	14.10	-8.58	74.53%	Michigan	-7.5
Georgia	Ohio State	12/31/22	29.04	24.01	-5.03	65.07%	Georgia	-6.5
CFP Final
Michigan	Georgia	1/9/23	22.68	29.04	6.36	68.78%	Georgia
Michigan	Ohio State	1/9/23	22.68	24.01	1.33	54.08%	Ohio State
TCU	Georgia	1/9/23	14.10	29.04	14.94	87.48%	Georgia
TCU	Ohio State	1/9/23	14.10	24.01	9.91	77.70%	Ohio State

The winner of Georgia/Ohio State is likely to win it all, as either team would be very large (> 75%) favorites over TCU and also slight favorites over Michigan.

As for the rest of the bowls, the model disagrees with Vegas a lot of the time - but this team-wide model isn't accounting for any player injuries or opt outs, or effort level, which can be very hard to tease out for the non-playoff bowl games.

Team A	Team B	Date	Rating A	Rating B	Pred Line	Log5	Pred Winner	Line	Abs Delta
Miami (OH)	UAB	12/16/22	-7.77	-1.42	6.35	68.74%	UAB	11	4.7
UTSA	Troy	12/16/22	2.01	-0.81	-2.82	58.58%	UTSA	1	3.8
Cincinnati	Louisville	12/17/22	10.00	8.28	-1.73	55.29%	Cincinnati	1	2.7
Florida	Oregon State	12/17/22	11.33	6.51	-4.82	64.45%	Florida	10	14.8
Washington State	Fresno State	12/17/22	3.06	1.01	-2.04	56.25%	Washington State	3	5.0
Southern Miss	Rice	12/17/22	-5.43	-13.00	-7.57	71.98%	Southern Miss	-6.5	1.1
SMU	Brigham Young	12/17/22	4.82	4.41	-0.41	51.26%	SMU	-3.5	3.1
North Texas	Boise State	12/17/22	-6.18	2.69	8.88	75.27%	Boise State	10	1.1
Marshall	Connecticut	12/19/22	1.85	-17.23	-19.08	92.89%	Marshall	-10	9.1
San Jose State	Eastern Michigan	12/20/22	-7.47	-8.38	-0.91	52.80%	San Jose State	-3.5	2.6
Toledo	Liberty	12/20/22	-2.10	-0.46	1.64	55.02%	Liberty	-4.5	6.1
South Alabama	Western Kentucky	12/21/22	-2.59	-1.83	0.76	52.33%	Western Kentucky	-8	8.8
Air Force	Baylor	12/22/22	0.87	10.76	9.89	77.66%	Baylor	6.5	3.4
Houston	Louisiana	12/23/22	5.69	-0.60	-6.30	68.59%	Houston	-6.5	0.2
Missouri	Wake Forest	12/23/22	6.41	7.04	0.63	51.93%	Wake Forest	1	0.4
San Diego State	Middle Tennessee	12/24/22	-4.24	-9.21	-4.96	64.87%	San Diego State	-7	2.0
Bowling Green	New Mexico State	12/26/22	-13.15	-18.54	-5.40	66.10%	Bowling Green	-3	2.4
Buffalo	Georgia Southern	12/27/22	-8.71	-7.87	0.84	52.56%	Georgia Southern	3.5	2.7
Utah State	Memphis	12/27/22	-8.33	2.48	10.81	79.72%	Memphis	7	3.8
East Carolina	Coastal Carolina	12/27/22	0.96	-2.08	-3.05	59.27%	East Carolina	-9	6.0
Oklahoma State	Wisconsin	12/27/22	11.05	7.28	-3.77	61.42%	Oklahoma State	3	6.8
Duke	UCF	12/28/22	-3.06	7.72	10.78	79.65%	UCF	-1.5	12.3
Arkansas	Kansas	12/28/22	9.92	-0.54	-10.45	78.93%	Arkansas	-2.5	8.0
North Carolina	Oregon	12/28/22	5.78	11.84	6.06	67.95%	Oregon	14	7.9
Ole Miss	Texas Tech	12/28/22	11.46	7.70	-3.76	61.38%	Ole Miss	-3.5	0.3
Minnesota	Syracuse	12/29/22	7.58	3.27	-4.31	63.00%	Minnesota	-7.5	3.2
Florida State	Oklahoma	12/29/22	10.35	13.29	2.94	58.95%	Oklahoma	-7.5	10.4
Washington	Texas	12/29/22	7.35	15.95	8.60	74.59%	Texas	5	3.6
North Carolina State	Maryland	12/30/22	8.82	5.38	-3.44	60.45%	North Carolina State	1.5	4.9
UCLA	Pittsburgh	12/30/22	8.98	8.62	-0.36	51.10%	UCLA	-6	5.6
South Carolina	Notre Dame	12/30/22	8.90	14.27	5.38	66.04%	Notre Dame	2	3.4
Wyoming	Ohio	12/30/22	-10.45	-8.22	2.24	56.83%	Ohio	0	2.2
Clemson	Tennessee	12/30/22	17.31	17.24	-0.07	50.21%	Clemson	-6.5	6.4
Kansas State	Alabama	12/31/22	14.07	24.87	10.80	79.70%	Alabama	3	7.8
Kentucky	Iowa	12/31/22	11.75	8.78	-2.97	59.04%	Kentucky	2.5	5.5
Illinois	Mississippi State	1/2/23	6.23	10.81	4.58	63.77%	Mississippi State	-2	6.6
USC	Tulane	1/2/23	9.51	6.42	-3.09	59.39%	USC	-1.5	1.6
Purdue	LSU	1/2/23	7.16	12.86	5.69	66.93%	LSU	10.5	4.8
Utah	Penn State	1/2/23	15.90	14.72	-1.18	53.63%	Utah	-2.5	1.3