Postseason NCAAF Rankings for 2022 + CFP Probabilities

My last NCAAF rankings came in 2019, and Alabama was the best team, with UTEP the worst. 

Since the regular season is over, I've included ESPN's FPI and Ed Feng's The Power Rank weighted heavily, with some light weighting to S&P+ from the preseason.

For this ranking set, I'm reflecting the strength of each team on a neutral site. So to calculate what one team would be favored over another, just subtract one rating from another.

We have a new #1 - Georgia, and a new #131 - FIU, 52 points worse on a neutral site.

And based on this rating system, Georgia really gets a poor matchup by the CFP committee wanting to avoid Ohio State and Michigan rematching in the semifinal. Georgia is clearly #1, but Ohio State is 3rd (still somehow slightly better than Michigan, even after Michigan ran over them in Columbus), whereas Michigan (at 4th) gets an opponent not even in the top 10 - TCU at #11.

Rank	Team	Make Final	Win Title
1	Georgia	65.07%	47.85%
4	Ohio State	34.93%	20.99%
2	Michigan	74.53%	27.10%
3	TCU	25.47%	4.06%

Full ratings:

Rank	Team	NewRating
1	Georgia	29.04
2	Alabama	24.87
3	Ohio State	24.01
4	Michigan	22.68
5	Clemson	17.31
6	Tennessee	17.24
7	Texas	15.95
8	Utah	15.90
9	Penn State	14.72
10	Notre Dame	14.27
11	TCU	14.10
12	Kansas State	14.07
13	Oklahoma	13.29
14	LSU	12.86
15	Oregon	11.84
16	Kentucky	11.75
17	Ole Miss	11.46
18	Florida	11.33
19	Texas A&M	11.13
20	Oklahoma State	11.05
21	Mississippi State	10.81
22	Baylor	10.76
23	Florida State	10.35
24	Cincinnati	10.00
25	Arkansas	9.92
26	USC	9.51
27	UCLA	8.98
28	South Carolina	8.90
29	North Carolina State	8.82
30	Iowa	8.78
31	Pittsburgh	8.62
32	Louisville	8.28
33	UCF	7.72
34	Texas Tech	7.70
35	Minnesota	7.58
36	Iowa State	7.41
37	Washington	7.35
38	Wisconsin	7.28
39	Purdue	7.16
40	Wake Forest	7.04
41	Auburn	6.98
42	Michigan State	6.68
43	Oregon State	6.51
44	Tulane	6.42
45	Missouri	6.41
46	Illinois	6.23
47	North Carolina	5.78
48	Houston	5.69
49	Maryland	5.38
50	SMU	4.82
51	Brigham Young	4.41
52	Louisiana-Monroe	3.61
53	Syracuse	3.27
54	West Virginia	3.16
55	Washington State	3.06
56	Boise State	2.69
57	Memphis	2.48
58	Appalachian State	2.35
59	Nebraska	2.16
60	UTSA	2.01
61	Miami (FL)	1.96
62	Marshall	1.85
63	Fresno State	1.01
64	East Carolina	0.96
65	Air Force	0.87
66	Arizona State	0.54
67	Liberty	-0.46
68	Kansas	-0.54
69	Louisiana	-0.60
70	Troy	-0.81
71	California	-1.02
72	UAB	-1.42
73	Western Kentucky	-1.83
74	Coastal Carolina	-2.08
75	Toledo	-2.10
76	Virginia	-2.34
77	Stanford	-2.40
78	South Alabama	-2.59
79	James Madison	-2.85
80	Virginia Tech	-3.06
81	Duke	-3.06
82	Army	-3.20
83	Indiana	-3.29
84	Georgia Tech	-3.32
85	Tulsa	-3.60
86	Georgia State	-3.60
87	Navy	-4.01
88	San Diego State	-4.24
89	Boston College	-4.36
90	Northwestern	-4.85
91	Arizona	-4.98
92	Southern Miss	-5.43
93	Vanderbilt	-6.07
94	North Texas	-6.18
95	Kent State	-6.51
96	South Florida	-6.70
97	Florida Atlantic	-7.11
98	San Jose State	-7.47
99	Central Michigan	-7.59
100	Miami (OH)	-7.77
101	Rutgers	-7.83
102	Georgia Southern	-7.87
103	Ohio	-8.22
104	Northern Illinois	-8.32
105	Utah State	-8.33
106	Old Dominion	-8.34
107	Eastern Michigan	-8.38
108	Buffalo	-8.71
109	Middle Tennessee	-9.21
110	Wyoming	-10.45
111	Ball State	-10.66
112	Western Michigan	-10.76
113	UTEP	-10.98
114	UNLV	-12.09
115	Colorado	-12.77
116	Texas State	-12.86
117	Louisiana Tech	-12.96
118	Rice	-13.00
119	Bowling Green	-13.15
120	Temple	-13.38
121	Arkansas State	-13.58
122	Nevada	-14.58
123	Colorado State	-14.78
124	Charlotte	-15.46
125	Connecticut	-17.23
126	Akron	-17.66
127	Hawaii	-18.21
128	New Mexico State	-18.54
129	New Mexico	-21.11
130	Massachusetts	-23.04
131	Florida International	-23.14