Preseason NCAAF Rankings for 2019

As I did in 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2014, I've compiled my preseason NCAAF rankings that take into account player turnover and recruiting classes.

There's a slightly new wrinkle this year though. As before, I used my final MDS Model ratings from last season as the base, and then factored in ESPN's Preseason FPI and the S&P+ projections (which are now housed over at ESPN with Bill Connelly leaving SB Nation), but this year I've also included Ed Feng's rating system from The Power Rank. Once the season starts, this "preseason" rating will be faded out as the season progresses, carrying less and less weight with each ensuing week.

As I have in the past, I missed Week 0, but got these ratings out before the first full weekend of games.

In the below list, the "Trend" indicates whether the respective team's new ranking rose or fell relative to last year's preseason ratings. No team movement in or out of FBS this year though!

My goodness are Alabama and Clemson evenly matched, and in a class of their own:

Alabama: 0.95035035751657
Clemson: 0.949045941382027

Rank	Team	PRESEASON	Trend
1	Alabama	0.950	UP
2	Clemson	0.949	UP
3	Georgia	0.851	UP
4	Oklahoma	0.813	UP
5	LSU	0.808	UP
6	Ohio State	0.806	DOWN
7	Michigan	0.793	UP
8	Notre Dame	0.792	DOWN
9	Auburn	0.784	DOWN
10	Penn State	0.743	DOWN
11	Florida	0.740	UP
12	Washington	0.732	DOWN
13	Texas A&M	0.731	UP
14	Mississippi State	0.723	DOWN
15	Michigan State	0.712	DOWN
16	Oregon	0.695	UP
17	Wisconsin	0.691	DOWN
18	Missouri	0.690	UP
19	Miami (FL)	0.669	DOWN
20	Utah	0.667	UP
21	South Carolina	0.660	UP
22	Florida State	0.654	DOWN
23	Oklahoma State	0.653	DOWN
24	Iowa	0.645	UP
25	USC	0.644	DOWN
26	Texas	0.636	DOWN
27	Stanford	0.635	DOWN
28	UCF	0.630	UP
29	Virginia Tech	0.629	DOWN
30	Tennessee	0.627	UP
31	Iowa State	0.627	UP
32	TCU	0.625	DOWN
33	Boise State	0.622	DOWN
34	Washington State	0.622	UP
35	Baylor	0.610	UP
36	UCLA	0.605	UP
37	Minnesota	0.603	UP
38	Ole Miss	0.602	DOWN
39	Kentucky	0.593	UP
40	Nebraska	0.585	UP
41	North Carolina State	0.583	DOWN
42	Syracuse	0.581	UP
43	Memphis	0.577	UP
44	Arizona State	0.575	UP
45	West Virginia	0.571	DOWN
46	Virginia	0.570	UP
47	Northwestern	0.569	DOWN
48	Texas Tech	0.568	DOWN
49	Purdue	0.568	UP
50	Duke	0.566	DOWN
51	Pittsburgh	0.563	UP
52	Appalachian State	0.554	UP
53	Brigham Young	0.552	UP
54	Indiana	0.547	UP
55	Arizona	0.546	DOWN
56	North Carolina	0.544	DOWN
57	Vanderbilt	0.536	UP
58	Cincinnati	0.535	UP
59	Wake Forest	0.532	DOWN
60	California	0.529	DOWN
61	Arkansas	0.524	DOWN
62	Kansas State	0.523	DOWN
63	Louisville	0.515	DOWN
64	Boston College	0.514	DOWN
65	Fresno State	0.508	UP
66	Houston	0.503	DOWN
67	Temple	0.495	UP
68	Georgia Tech	0.495	DOWN
69	Utah State	0.495	UP
70	Maryland	0.490	UP
71	San Diego State	0.489	DOWN
72	South Florida	0.479	DOWN
73	Marshall	0.477	DOWN
74	Northern Illinois	0.469	UP
75	Toledo	0.468	DOWN
76	Colorado	0.464	UP
77	Western Michigan	0.459	UP
78	Florida Atlantic	0.453	DOWN
79	Army	0.452	UP
80	Ohio	0.449	DOWN
81	Southern Miss	0.447	UP
82	Arkansas State	0.440	DOWN
83	Georgia Southern	0.438	UP
84	Air Force	0.437	UP
85	Southern Methodist	0.425	DOWN
86	Troy	0.425	UP
87	Illinois	0.421	UP
88	North Texas	0.417	UP
89	Louisiana Tech	0.412	DOWN
90	Wyoming	0.403	DOWN
91	Tulane	0.400	UP
92	Middle Tennessee	0.397	DOWN
93	Florida International	0.394	UP
94	Tulsa	0.387	UP
95	Oregon State	0.380	UP
96	Miami (OH)	0.380	DOWN
97	Nevada	0.379	UP
98	Rutgers	0.374	DOWN
99	Western Kentucky	0.373	UP
100	Hawaii	0.373	UP
101	UAB	0.363	UP
102	Eastern Michigan	0.360	UP
103	Navy	0.349	DOWN
104	Buffalo	0.348	DOWN
105	Louisiana-Monroe	0.345	UP
106	Kansas	0.341	DOWN
107	Colorado State	0.339	DOWN
108	Louisiana-Lafayette	0.336	UP
109	UNLV	0.325	DOWN
110	Ball State	0.324	UP
111	East Carolina	0.309	UP
112	Texas State	0.307	UP
113	Liberty	0.285	UP
114	Georgia State	0.276	UP
115	Coastal Carolina	0.274	UP
116	Central Michigan	0.274	DOWN
117	San Jose State	0.269	UP
118	New Mexico	0.260	DOWN
119	Akron	0.255	DOWN
120	Kent State	0.250	UP
121	Bowling Green	0.244	DOWN
122	Charlotte	0.234	UP
123	New Mexico State	0.234	DOWN
124	UTSA	0.229	DOWN
125	Massachusetts	0.218	DOWN
126	South Alabama	0.213	DOWN
127	Old Dominion	0.206	DOWN
128	Connecticut	0.201	DOWN
129	Rice	0.162	DOWN
130	UTEP	0.118	DOWN

Can Federer Be the GOAT with a Losing H2H Record vs Nadal and Djokovic?

Men's Tennis (ATP)

Roger Federer is arguably the greatest tennis player of all-time. He's spent 310 weeks at #1 in the ATP world rankings, including 237 consecutive weeks; both are all-time records. He has 20 Grand Slam titles, also the all-time record.

Player	Grand Slams	Rank	Weeks at #1	Rank	Win %	Rank	Career Wins	Rank	Total Titles	Rank
Federer	20	1	310	1	82.2%	3	1,222	1	102	1
Nadal	18	2	196	3	83.0%	1	956	2	82	2
Djokovic	16	3	260	2	82.7%	2	871	3	75	3

But he also has a strange hole in his resume; he has a losing record to two other players who have had their primes overlap with his: 22-26 vs Djokovic and 16-24 vs Nadal.

H2H Wins, Overall
Player	Federer	Nadal	Djokovic	Total
Federer	-	16	22	38
Nadal	24	-	26	50
Djokovic	26	28	-	54
Total	50	44	48	142

So can you be the GOAT, yet have 2 players be strictly better than you head-to-head?

This pattern holds up when you look at the matches that matter most: in both Grand Slams and finals, Federer does worse:

H2H Wins, In Grand Slams
Player	Federer	Nadal	Djokovic	Total
Federer	-	4	6	10
Nadal	10	-	9	19
Djokovic	10	6	-	16
Total	20	10	15	45

H2H Wins, In Finals
Player	Federer	Nadal	Djokovic	Total
Federer	-	10	6	16
Nadal	14	-	11	25
Djokovic	13	15	-	28
Total	27	25	17	69

You see this kind of intransitive property all the time in sports, especially in college football and college basketball. But tennis is an individual sport, so any variance in performance should theoretically be explained by that player, as opposed to a collection of players on a team.

But tennis does have one significant variable: the surface that the tournament is played on.

H2H Wins, Grass
Player	Federer	Nadal	Djokovic	Total
Federer	-	3	1	4
Nadal	1	-	2	3
Djokovic	3	2	-	5
Total	4	5	3	12

H2H Wins, Hard
Player	Federer	Nadal	Djokovic	Total
Federer	-	11	17	28
Nadal	9	-	7	16
Djokovic	19	19	-	38
Total	28	30	24	82

H2H Wins, Clay
Player	Federer	Nadal	Djokovic	Total
Federer	-	2	4	6
Nadal	14	-	17	31
Djokovic	4	7	-	11
Total	18	9	21	48

Federer is 37 and has been a pro for 21 years, Nadal: 33 and 18, Djokovic: 32 and 16. So it might just be too early to tell. Each player's career isn't over yet, so all I can do is present this information without offering a conclusion.

To answer the overall "GOAT" question, I think you have to consider the overall body of work first and foremost. But that's an opinion - I don't really have a data-driven answer from the above evidence. 

Federer vs Nadal

Federer vs Djokovic

Djokovic vs Nadal

Women's Tennis (WTA)

It's Serena Williams. End of post