Categories

Sunday, December 6, 2015

College Football Playoff and Bowl Picks

The College Football Playoff and all 39 other bowls are now set (there were so many this year that some 5-7 teams made it), and with that I can use my Pyth ratings from the MDS Model to project the winners of each game. A couple of notes about this year's slate:

  1. As mentioned above, three 5-7 teams will play in a bowl game this year: Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose State.
  2. There is a 41st bowl for 2 FCS teams: the winners of the MEAC and SWAC will face off in the first bowl of the season in Atlanta. These 2 conferences voluntarily removed themselves from FCS playoff consideration in order to participate in this bowl.
  3. With the 5-7 debacle, 2 MWC teams actually will end up playing each other in a bowl game: Nevada vs Colorado State. And the MWC commissioner is not happy about it.
But first, here are my probabilities for each team in the playoff:


SeedTeamFinalChampion
1Clemson36.76%14.38%
4Oklahoma63.24%32.92%
2Alabama69.10%40.59%
3Michigan State30.90%12.12%

Alabama is the #1 team in the country in my model, and we look headed for a rematch of the 2014 Sugar Bowl in the NCG: Alabama vs Oklahoma. And 2/5ths of the time, Tricky Nicky will take home yet another title for Alabama.

Before we take a look at the rest of the bowls, let's look back at my "8 Completely Arbitrary 2015 NCAAF Bold Predictions". I definitely went chalk (not bold) with pretty much every single one, so we should see a high percentage of correct "predictions".

1. North Carolina will be this year's fraud ACC team
Check! 1/1

2. Georgia will win the SEC
Not even close. 1/2

3. Alabama will miss the CFP
As I just illustrated above, they'll likely win the damn thing. 1/3

4. Al Golden will be fired after Miami goes 6-6 again
Well, I got this half-way correct about half-way through the season. Golden got fired, but Miami went 8-4. 1.5/4

5. The ACC will be the conference left out of the CFP
Try #1 overall seed. 1.5/5

6. Tennessee will beat Florida
This definitely should've happened, but of course, it didn't. 1.5/6

7. Ezekiel Elliot will win the Heisman Trophy
Not likely. 1.5/7

8. Ohio St will repeat as National Champions
Literally can not happen. 1.5/8

Well, that should entirely have been expected. 1.5/8 for a phenomenal percent correct of 19%-ish.

Now for the rest of the bowl picks, which are backed by math and statistical reasoning, and not just me pontificating (only FBS included):

Team ATeam BLog5P LinePICK SU
New MexicoArizona38.93%3.79Arizona
UtahBrigham Young55.46%-1.85Utah
Appalachian StateOhio74.69%-8.97Appalachian State
Georgia StateSan Jose State57.43%-2.53Georgia State
Louisiana TechArkansas State54.73%-1.60Louisiana Tech
South FloridaWestern Kentucky43.01%2.38Western Kentucky
Utah StateAkron75.32%-9.24Utah State
TempleToledo52.53%-0.86Temple
Northern IllinoisBoise State33.98%5.57Boise State
Bowling GreenGeorgia Southern70.40%-7.23Bowling Green
Western MichiganMiddle Tennessee61.64%-4.00Western Michigan
CincinnatiSan Diego State44.69%1.80San Diego State
MarshallConnecticut73.47%-8.47Marshall
Washington StateMiami (FL)59.42%-3.22Washington State
Southern MissWashington37.72%4.22Washington
DukeIndiana50.46%-0.16Duke
Virginia TechTulsa57.78%-2.65Virginia Tech
NebraskaUCLA47.81%0.74UCLA
NavyPittsburgh69.64%-6.94Navy
MinnesotaCentral Michigan48.23%0.60Central Michigan
Air ForceCalifornia47.69%0.78California
BaylorNorth Carolina48.50%0.51North Carolina
Colorado StateNevada47.69%0.78Nevada
Texas TechLSU37.88%4.17LSU
MemphisAuburn72.72%-8.16Memphis
Mississippi StateNorth Carolina State54.38%-1.48Mississippi State
LouisvilleTexas A&M51.70%-0.57Louisville
WisconsinUSC42.24%2.64USC
Florida StateHouston56.43%-2.19Florida State
ClemsonOklahoma36.76%4.57Oklahoma
AlabamaMichigan State69.10%-6.73Alabama
TennesseeNorthwestern71.14%-7.53Tennessee
FloridaMichigan38.68%3.88Michigan
Ohio StateNotre Dame65.21%-5.28Ohio State
IowaStanford39.97%3.43Stanford
Ole MissOklahoma State64.73%-5.10Ole Miss
GeorgiaPenn State46.64%1.14Penn State
ArkansasKansas State70.44%-7.25Arkansas
TCUOregon61.63%-3.99TCU
Arizona StateWest Virginia41.18%3.01Arizona State
AlabamaOklahoma54.00%-1.36Alabama
 


No comments:

Post a Comment