Sweet 16 per the MDS Model (2026)

Going into the tournament, there were 3 standout teams: Duke, Michigan, and Arizona, who combined to win the title ~50% of the time. 

And that remains the case - bumping up their odds to 56% combined. Dook is slightly more likely than before play began, up to 22% as the favorite now. After the top 3, Houston has the best chance out of the South region, at 8%.

But now the real reason you're here, conference-based odds:

• Chances of the Big 10 winning its first title since 2000: 36% (Michigan St + Iowa + Nebraska + Illinois + Purdue + Michigan)
  
• Chances of an all Big 10 Final Four to guarantee this: 1.6%
• Chances of the ACC winning its 9th title since 2000: 22% (Duke)

Seed	Team	Elite 8	Final Four	Championship	Champion
	Sweet 16
1	Duke	74.44%	52.75%	36.45%	21.98%
5	St. John's	25.56%	11.68%	5.16%	1.82%
3	Michigan St.	48.91%	17.15%	8.20%	3.18%
2	Connecticut	51.09%	18.42%	9.00%	3.58%
9	Iowa	42.33%	13.38%	3.83%	1.08%
4	Nebraska	57.67%	22.36%	7.88%	2.75%
3	Illinois	46.01%	28.64%	12.54%	5.46%
2	Houston	53.99%	35.61%	16.94%	8.04%
1	Arizona	72.14%	50.27%	28.77%	16.79%
4	Arkansas	27.86%	13.33%	4.66%	1.68%
11	Texas	28.59%	6.48%	1.52%	0.37%
2	Purdue	71.41%	29.92%	12.84%	5.67%
1	Michigan	73.82%	48.27%	29.28%	17.45%
4	Alabama	26.18%	10.68%	3.91%	1.39%
6	Tennessee	36.74%	12.19%	4.56%	1.65%
2	Iowa St.	63.26%	28.87%	14.48%	7.10%