Final Four per the MDS Model (2026)

And then there were two favorites remaining - 65% of the time, the champion will come from the right side of the bracket (Arizona + Michigan). Also 28% chance we are guaranteed a Big 10 champion for the first time since 2000 (Illinois + Michigan).

I've only recently correctly predicted the champion at this stage when it has been Connecticut. I did not get this right in either 2025 or 2024.

Michigan gets the nod here, barely, if they can survive a coin flip against Arizona:

Seed	Team	Championship	Champion
	Final Four
2	Connecticut	45.98%	15.06%
3	Illinois	54.02%	19.70%
1	Arizona	48.66%	31.44%
1	Michigan	51.34%	33.80%

No matter how you slice it, Arizona or Michigan would be a ~2/3rd favorite over whoever advances from Connecticut and Illinois:

Seed	Matchups	Title Game
2	Connecticut	33.37%
1	Arizona	66.63%
2	Connecticut	32.16%
1	Michigan	67.84%
3	Illinois	37.11%
1	Arizona	62.89%
3	Illinois	35.86%
1	Michigan	64.14%