NBA Playoffs 2026 Bracket Math (Post Play-In)

The 7-seed has still never missed the playoffs, but the play-in winners don't exactly strike fear in the top of each conference. 

I double-checked the model - San Antonio is in fact the favorite in my predictive model, and combined with OKC there is a slim chance any other team wins the title. San Antonio leads the way at ~40%, and OKC is right behind at ~30%. Combined they win over 2/3rds of the time. OKC was over 50% to win it last year, and they did so (although were pushed to 7 games by Indiana in the Finals).

Similarly, the East is extremely top-heavy, with Detroit + Boston getting out of the East a combined 88% of the time. Slight nod to Boston, who the model likes better with a healthy Jayson Tatum.

Over the top two seeds in each conference, the combined title odds are over 97%. Literally a 1 in 50 chance someone other than San Antonio/OKC/Boston/Detroit wins it all.

Team	Seed	Rating	Make Round 2	Make Conf Finals	Make Finals	Win Finals
East
Detroit Pistons	1	0.842	92.6%	79.7%	41.9%	12.6%
Boston Celtics	2	0.894	98.3%	77.0%	46.4%	16.6%
New York Knicks	3	0.655	81.2%	21.4%	8.5%	1.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	4	0.483	74.0%	15.1%	2.6%	0.2%
Toronto Raptors	5	0.262	26.0%	2.4%	0.2%	0.0%
Atlanta Hawks	6	0.318	18.8%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%
Philadelphia 76ers	7	0.031	1.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Orlando Magic	8	0.291	7.4%	2.8%	0.2%	0.0%
West
Oklahoma City Thunder	1	0.987	97.3%	90.5%	43.4%	29.2%
San Antonio Spurs	2	1.068	99.5%	87.6%	52.9%	39.0%
Denver Nuggets	3	0.659	88.3%	12.2%	2.8%	0.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	4	0.374	42.6%	2.5%	0.1%	0.0%
Houston Rockets	5	0.466	57.4%	6.1%	0.7%	0.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	6	0.203	11.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	7	0.022	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Phoenix Suns	8	0.232	2.8%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%