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Saturday, April 18, 2026

NHL Playoffs 2026 Bracket Math

It's been a few years since I've simulated an NHL bracket, but went ahead and adapted my NBA simulator to run on this year's Stanley Cup playoffs.

  • Colorado is pretty dominant, but a different team still wins the title 80%+ of the time
    • They're the only team easily over 60% to advance out of round 1
  • Four teams combine for over 50%: Colorado, Carolina, Dallas, and Buffalo (in order)
  • Utah looks like the best wild card poised to potentially make a deep run
  • Only a 14% chance Canada's Stanley Cup drought since 1993 comes to an end

TeamSeedRatingMake Round 2Make Conf FinalsMake FinalsWin Finals
East
Carolina HurricanesM10.46658.1%36.4%20.2%11.8%
Buffalo SabresA10.44560.7%33.5%19.0%10.7%
Tampa Bay LightningA20.38154.0%27.7%15.5%8.8%
Pittsburgh PenguinsM20.21055.1%23.5%10.1%4.5%
Philadelphia FlyersM30.11444.9%17.6%6.7%2.9%
Montreal CanadiensA30.29346.0%21.6%10.5%5.0%
Boston BruinsWC10.18939.3%17.2%7.5%3.5%
Ottawa SenatorsWC20.29041.9%22.5%10.5%5.3%
West
Colorado AvalancheC10.50878.7%44.7%32.0%18.2%
Vegas Golden KnightsP1-0.05041.4%21.3%6.7%2.2%
Edmonton OilersP20.03559.2%28.4%9.9%3.4%
Dallas StarsC20.43257.4%29.7%19.7%11.0%
Minnesota WildC30.28142.6%20.0%12.0%5.8%
Anaheim DucksP3-0.17540.8%16.8%4.4%1.3%
Utah MammothWC10.15158.7%33.5%13.1%5.1%
Los Angeles KingsWC2-0.21421.3%5.7%2.3%0.6%

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