Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Quarterfinals

We are on to the quarterfinals, and the odds continue to coalesce around the favorites.

Argentina continues to cheat death, Spain got past Portugal to now emerge as the favorite, England gets a huge boost by surviving the Azteca, and then France continues to look like the best team in the tournament. This leaves us with these four countries with 15%+ to win, with the following increases relative to the start of the tournament:

• Argentina: +12%
• Spain: +11%
• France: +9%
• England: +9%

We are also up to a 94% chance the champion once again is from South America or Europe - only Morocco stands in the way now that all three hosts flamed out.

Group	Country	MDS Rating	Semis	Final	Champion	Delta
I	France	2.09	62.81%	32.00%	17.07%	9.38%
C	Morocco	1.57	37.19%	14.21%	5.76%	3.69%
H	Spain	2.29	67.24%	39.99%	23.06%	11.20%
G	Belgium	1.56	32.76%	13.79%	5.66%	3.42%
I	Norway	1.58	39.76%	15.81%	6.21%	4.22%
L	England	2.00	60.24%	30.14%	15.00%	8.64%
J	Argentina	2.23	66.58%	39.64%	21.67%	11.60%
B	Switzerland	1.53	33.42%	14.41%	5.58%	3.50%