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Saturday, July 11, 2026

Simulating the 2026 World Cup: Semifinals

All four favorites advanced, leading to a heavyweight semifinals, and extremely, extremely level odds. The champion is once again guaranteed to be from Europe or South America.

GroupCountryMDS RatingFinalChampion
IFrance2.0945.09%22.09%
HSpain2.2954.91%29.61%
LEngland2.0044.36%20.02%
JArgentina2.2355.64%28.28%

All four potential Final matchups are pretty equally likely as well, with each outcome a heavyweight matchup. Every matchup is close to 50/50:

FinalMatchup %Champion OddsRunnerup Odds
Spain vs Argentina30.50%Spain 51.5%Argentina 48.5%
France vs Argentina25.10%Argentina 53.4%France 46.6%
Spain vs England24.30%Spain 57.1%England 42.9%
France vs England20.10%France 52.2%England 47.8%

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