MLB Playoffs 2026 Bracket Math

Baseball continues to confound us, especially in the expanded postseason era with 12 teams - with a 162-game regular season, your fate comes down to a best of 3, and if you're a lower seed even with a better record, you have to take those games on the road of an inferior team (looking at you, Chicago White Sox).

As seems to be the case every year, the Dodgers are heavy favorites. Last time I ran these simulations in 2020 this was the case, and the Dodgers did a win the (very weird) title.

Seed	Team	Division Series	Championship Series	World Series	Champion
	American League
1	Tampa Bay Rays	100.0%	47.9%	28.3%	11.0%
4	New York Yankees	57.2%	31.0%	19.8%	8.7%
5	Boston Red Sox	42.8%	21.1%	12.3%	4.8%
2	Cleveland Guardians	100.0%	56.7%	24.0%	8.0%
3	Houston Astros	57.0%	25.8%	9.8%	2.9%
6	Chicago White Sox	43.0%	17.5%	5.7%	1.4%
	National League
1	Milwaukee Brewers	100.0%	59.1%	25.2%	14.9%
4	San Diego Padres	47.8%	17.8%	5.1%	2.3%
5	Chicago Cubs	52.2%	23.0%	8.3%	4.4%
2	Los Angeles Dodgers	100.0%	65.6%	44.2%	32.0%
3	Atlanta Braves	50.2%	16.3%	7.8%	4.2%
6	Philadelphia Phillies	49.8%	18.0%	9.4%	5.4%

The AL, on the other hand, is way more wide open. Only one team, the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays, have a better than 10% chance to win it all, with the Yankees (9%) and Guardians (8%) right behind. 

I will admit, with a way worse record, it feels deeply unfair that Cleveland has a better chance of making the ALCS, given they won 13 less games than Tampa Bay. But due to the way the seeding breaks, a team with 85 wins or less is guaranteed to make it out of the 2/3/6 side, and worst case for 1/4/5 is the Red Sox at 87 wins.