Big 5 Conference Tournaments (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12)

Included are the MDS Model picks for the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, and Pac-12 tournaments (sorry SEC). I used KenPom's conference rankings to determine the Top 5 conferences this year, and SEC was the odd man out. Also included are the round-by-round probabilities for each team. For the purposes of coding each conference, there are 16 teams listed, and simply empty slots for the non-existent teams.

ACC

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	North Carolina	100.00%	100.00%	71.68%	44.99%	22.28%
8	Pittsburgh	100.00%	57.29%	17.67%	7.79%	2.44%
9	Syracuse	100.00%	42.71%	10.65%	3.99%	1.03%
16	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Notre Dame	100.00%	100.00%	34.41%	11.52%	3.25%
5	Duke	100.00%	85.36%	58.95%	30.68%	13.98%
12	North Carolina State	67.82%	11.73%	3.73%	0.73%	0.12%
13	Wake Forest	32.18%	2.91%	2.91%	0.30%	0.03%
2	Virginia	100.00%	100.00%	85.70%	58.17%	37.29%
7	Clemson	100.00%	46.77%	6.30%	1.74%	0.40%
10	Georgia Tech	100.00%	53.23%	8.00%	2.40%	0.61%
15	Louisville	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Miami (FL)	100.00%	100.00%	79.78%	34.38%	17.86%
6	Virginia Tech	100.00%	43.95%	6.75%	0.94%	0.16%
11	Florida State	89.82%	54.54%	11.95%	2.32%	0.56%
14	Boston College	10.18%	1.52%	1.52%	0.05%	0.00%
	Totals	12	8	4	2	1

Note: Louisville is banned from postseason play (and thus set to 0)

Big 10

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Indiana	100.00%	100.00%	74.41%	36.30%	15.55%
8	Michigan	100.00%	71.52%	21.44%	6.40%	1.62%
9	Northwestern	100.00%	28.48%	4.15%	0.64%	0.08%
16	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Purdue	100.00%	100.00%	59.88%	37.16%	18.26%
5	Iowa	100.00%	92.39%	36.72%	19.21%	7.60%
12	Illinois	54.52%	4.47%	0.25%	0.02%	0.00%
13	Minnesota	0.4547615609	3.15%	3.15%	0.27%	0.01%
2	Michigan State	100.00%	100.00%	90.15%	65.94%	43.04%
7	Ohio State	100.00%	76.83%	8.96%	2.45%	0.51%
10	Penn State	100.00%	23.17%	0.89%	0.09%	0.01%
15	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Maryland	100.00%	100.00%	64.32%	22.36%	10.09%
6	Wisconsin	100.00%	79.59%	32.20%	8.80%	3.17%
11	Nebraska	91.53%	20.19%	3.26%	0.36%	0.05%
14	Rutgers	8.47%	0.22%	0.22%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	12	8	4	2	1

Big 12

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Kansas	100.00%	100.00%	85.26%	64.97%	39.23%
8	Kansas State	100.00%	69.39%	12.13%	4.91%	1.25%
9	Oklahoma State	100.00%	30.61%	2.61%	0.60%	0.08%
16	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Texas	100.00%	100.00%	46.07%	12.86%	4.03%
5	Baylor	100.00%	100.00%	53.93%	16.66%	5.78%
12	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
13	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	West Virginia	100.00%	100.00%	83.49%	53.01%	29.79%
7	Texas Tech	100.00%	81.34%	15.55%	4.59%	1.17%
10	TCU	100.00%	18.66%	0.96%	0.08%	0.01%
15	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Oklahoma	100.00%	100.00%	61.90%	28.75%	13.68%
6	Iowa State	100.00%	100.00%	38.10%	13.57%	5.00%
11	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	10	8	4	2	1

Big East

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Villanova	100.00%	100.00%	89.45%	76.38%	57.74%
8	Georgetown	100.00%	86.35%	10.27%	4.61%	1.47%
9	DePaul	100.00%	13.65%	0.29%	0.03%	0.00%
16	None	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Providence	100.00%	100.00%	34.86%	4.80%	1.34%
5	Butler	100.00%	100.00%	65.14%	14.18%	5.81%
12	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
13	None	0%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Xavier	100.00%	100.00%	90.38%	65.91%	26.26%
7	Marquette	100.00%	73.22%	8.41%	2.22%	0.22%
10	St. John	100.00%	26.78%	1.21%	0.14%	0.01%
15	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	Seton Hall	100.00%	100.00%	62.51%	22.10%	5.47%
6	Creighton	100.00%	100.00%	37.49%	9.62%	1.68%
11	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	10	8	4	2	1

Pac-12

Seed	Team	2nd Round	Quarters	Semis	Final	Champion
1	Oregon	100.00%	100.00%	79.27%	47.13%	28.32%
8	Washington	100.00%	58.44%	13.45%	4.26%	1.35%
9	Stanford	100.00%	41.56%	7.29%	1.83%	0.46%
16	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
4	Arizona	100.00%	100.00%	74.96%	39.11%	21.99%
5	Colorado	100.00%	82.67%	23.69%	7.54%	2.61%
12	Washington State	100.00%	17.33%	1.35%	0.13%	0.01%
13	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
2	Utah	100.00%	100.00%	68.17%	37.62%	18.31%
7	USC	100.00%	55.96%	19.09%	7.58%	2.54%
10	UCLA	100.00%	44.04%	12.75%	4.39%	1.25%
15	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
3	California	100.00%	100.00%	74.18%	42.04%	20.87%
6	Oregon State	100.00%	59.29%	17.01%	5.97%	1.74%
11	Arizona State	100.00%	40.71%	8.81%	2.41%	0.54%
14	None	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	Totals	12	8	4	2	1

NFL Playoff Picks 2015-16

The NFL Playoffs start this weekend, and the NFC is absolutely stacked at the top, with 3 of the top 4 teams in my Pyth ratings (SEA, ARI, and CAR, in that order). Last year I hit both conference champions, and will aim to replicate this continued success picking champions (the MDS Model had Ohio State winning it all last year, has Alabama this year, had San Antonio in 2014 in NBA, and Golden State in 2015 in NBA (granted those last 3 are pretty chalk)).

A quick sidebar, since the regular season has wrapped up: my preseason win total picks went 17-13-2 (56.67%) on the year.

Now for the playoff probabilities:

1. The NFL bracket is reseeded after each round, and this is accounted for.
2. San Francisco is the Super Bowl L 50 host, and we sure don't have to worry about factoring in home-field this year in that game!
3. As mentioned previously, the top of the NFC is legit. CAR, ARI, or SEA win the Super Bowl 55.39% of the time by themselves.
4. Even though I have SEA as the best team in the NFL, they are the 5th most likely to win it all thanks to an absolutely brutal possible schedule of MIN-CAR-ARI just to GET to the Super Bowl.

AFC		Wild Card	2nd Round	AFC	SB
1	DEN	100.00%	57.53%	31.75%	14.09%
4	HOU	36.73%	9.44%	2.45%	0.75%
5	KC	63.27%	29.99%	14.30%	7.74%
2	NE	100.00%	59.14%	29.81%	14.97%
3	CIN	63.80%	27.74%	14.81%	7.95%
6	PIT	36.20%	16.16%	6.78%	3.32%
NFC		Wild Card	2nd Round	NFC	SB
1	CAR	100.00%	60.08%	39.37%	21.53%
4	WSH	43.49%	7.95%	1.93%	0.59%
5	GB	56.51%	16.92%	6.63%	3.02%
2	ARI	100.00%	73.84%	40.90%	23.17%
3	MIN	40.11%	11.40%	3.84%	1.68%
6	SEA	59.89%	29.42%	16.92%	10.69%

College Football Playoff and Bowl Picks

The College Football Playoff and all 39 other bowls are now set (there were so many this year that some 5-7 teams made it), and with that I can use my Pyth ratings from the MDS Model to project the winners of each game. A couple of notes about this year's slate:

1. As mentioned above, three 5-7 teams will play in a bowl game this year: Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose State.
2. There is a 41st bowl for 2 FCS teams: the winners of the MEAC and SWAC will face off in the first bowl of the season in Atlanta. These 2 conferences voluntarily removed themselves from FCS playoff consideration in order to participate in this bowl.
3. With the 5-7 debacle, 2 MWC teams actually will end up playing each other in a bowl game: Nevada vs Colorado State. And the MWC commissioner is not happy about it.

But first, here are my probabilities for each team in the playoff:

Seed	Team	Final	Champion
1	Clemson	36.76%	14.38%
4	Oklahoma	63.24%	32.92%
2	Alabama	69.10%	40.59%
3	Michigan State	30.90%	12.12%

Alabama is the #1 team in the country in my model, and we look headed for a rematch of the 2014 Sugar Bowl in the NCG: Alabama vs Oklahoma. And 2/5ths of the time, Tricky Nicky will take home yet another title for Alabama.

Before we take a look at the rest of the bowls, let's look back at my "8 Completely Arbitrary 2015 NCAAF Bold Predictions". I definitely went chalk (not bold) with pretty much every single one, so we should see a high percentage of correct "predictions".

1. North Carolina will be this year's fraud ACC team

Check! 1/1

2. Georgia will win the SEC

Not even close. 1/2

3. Alabama will miss the CFP

As I just illustrated above, they'll likely win the damn thing. 1/3

4. Al Golden will be fired after Miami goes 6-6 again

Well, I got this half-way correct about half-way through the season. Golden got fired, but Miami went 8-4. 1.5/4

5. The ACC will be the conference left out of the CFP

Try #1 overall seed. 1.5/5

6. Tennessee will beat Florida

This definitely should've happened, but of course, it didn't. 1.5/6

7. Ezekiel Elliot will win the Heisman Trophy

Not likely. 1.5/7

8. Ohio St will repeat as National Champions

Literally can not happen. 1.5/8

Well, that should entirely have been expected. 1.5/8 for a phenomenal percent correct of 19%-ish.

Now for the rest of the bowl picks, which are backed by math and statistical reasoning, and not just me pontificating (only FBS included):