In each of the past three World Cups (2014, 2018, and 2022), I simulated Brazil to hoist the trophy. This year is finally different! I have Spain over Argentina, as do many other projection systems.
But it is a wide open tournament this year, this first tournament expanded to 48 teams - no team surpasses 12% odds to win it all.
I combine 5 models to make these predictions:
I then used this model's output, along with the parameter of 0.4 goals for home-field for United States, Canada, and Mexico, and simulated the World Cup 100,000 times to get the following probabilities:
| Group | Country | MDS Rating | FIFA Ranking | Avg Points | 1st Group | 2nd Group | 3rd Group | Advance | Round of 16 | Quarters | Semis | Final | Champion |
| A | Mexico | 1.44 | 15 | 5.69 | 58.57% | 23.97% | 11.70% | 90.91% | 56.82% | 31.42% | 16.79% | 8.67% | 4.45% |
| A | South Korea | 1.23 | 25 | 4.05 | 19.92% | 34.83% | 26.73% | 72.18% | 35.24% | 14.69% | 5.57% | 2.13% | 0.79% |
| A | Czechia | 1.09 | 41 | 3.68 | 13.92% | 25.59% | 34.28% | 62.11% | 28.15% | 10.93% | 3.65% | 1.24% | 0.40% |
| A | South Africa | 0.80 | 60 | 2.92 | 7.59% | 15.63% | 27.29% | 41.67% | 16.00% | 5.32% | 1.50% | 0.43% | 0.12% |
| B | Canada | 1.22 | 30 | 5.50 | 40.28% | 37.94% | 15.65% | 89.26% | 53.90% | 27.10% | 12.78% | 6.08% | 2.77% |
| B | Switzerland | 1.53 | 19 | 5.26 | 46.46% | 31.05% | 15.57% | 88.78% | 50.51% | 24.22% | 10.77% | 4.88% | 2.08% |
| B | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.71 | 65 | 3.12 | 8.31% | 19.06% | 41.15% | 46.31% | 16.32% | 5.12% | 1.31% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| B | Qatar | 0.48 | 55 | 2.55 | 4.95% | 11.94% | 27.64% | 31.79% | 9.47% | 2.62% | 0.58% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| C | Brazil | 1.95 | 6 | 5.75 | 56.86% | 26.01% | 12.62% | 92.95% | 55.83% | 33.20% | 18.80% | 10.23% | 5.46% |
| C | Morocco | 1.57 | 8 | 4.77 | 26.71% | 40.10% | 23.48% | 84.63% | 41.98% | 21.60% | 10.32% | 4.64% | 2.08% |
| C | Scotland | 1.23 | 43 | 3.86 | 13.42% | 25.43% | 41.84% | 69.69% | 28.55% | 12.21% | 4.77% | 1.78% | 0.66% |
| C | Haiti | 0.50 | 83 | 2.07 | 3.01% | 8.46% | 22.07% | 23.12% | 5.92% | 1.49% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| D | United States | 1.28 | 16 | 4.70 | 30.85% | 27.76% | 24.15% | 78.46% | 45.95% | 23.84% | 11.48% | 5.67% | 2.65% |
| D | Turkiye | 1.49 | 22 | 4.21 | 33.33% | 27.26% | 21.80% | 74.98% | 41.40% | 19.83% | 8.74% | 3.80% | 1.63% |
| D | Paraguay | 1.33 | 40 | 3.75 | 21.72% | 25.33% | 26.54% | 65.93% | 32.97% | 14.26% | 5.84% | 2.39% | 0.86% |
| D | Australia | 1.26 | 27 | 3.58 | 14.09% | 19.65% | 27.52% | 57.63% | 26.79% | 10.99% | 4.45% | 1.70% | 0.60% |
| E | Germany | 1.86 | 10 | 5.65 | 54.09% | 27.89% | 13.51% | 92.79% | 55.21% | 30.03% | 16.73% | 8.85% | 4.48% |
| E | Ecuador | 1.66 | 23 | 5.12 | 31.55% | 40.85% | 20.51% | 88.50% | 47.44% | 23.81% | 11.98% | 5.81% | 2.77% |
| E | Ivory Coast | 1.12 | 34 | 3.73 | 11.82% | 23.79% | 44.78% | 65.87% | 26.17% | 10.09% | 3.63% | 1.27% | 0.41% |
| E | Curacao | 0.39 | 82 | 1.96 | 2.54% | 7.47% | 21.21% | 20.53% | 5.02% | 1.16% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| F | Netherlands | 1.82 | 7 | 5.30 | 49.98% | 27.66% | 14.90% | 88.87% | 49.14% | 28.63% | 15.29% | 7.77% | 3.88% |
| F | Japan | 1.69 | 18 | 4.95 | 32.66% | 37.54% | 19.67% | 85.54% | 43.38% | 23.34% | 11.87% | 5.80% | 2.69% |
| F | Sweden | 1.04 | 38 | 3.22 | 10.16% | 19.98% | 37.19% | 53.25% | 18.27% | 6.97% | 2.46% | 0.82% | 0.25% |
| F | Tunisia | 0.91 | 44 | 2.88 | 7.20% | 14.82% | 28.24% | 41.96% | 13.13% | 4.66% | 1.51% | 0.50% | 0.17% |
| G | Belgium | 1.56 | 9 | 5.27 | 50.51% | 26.38% | 15.30% | 88.05% | 49.32% | 24.50% | 10.88% | 5.08% | 2.23% |
| G | Iran | 1.18 | 21 | 4.25 | 23.57% | 33.29% | 26.48% | 74.02% | 33.51% | 12.99% | 4.77% | 1.77% | 0.63% |
| G | Egypt | 1.15 | 29 | 4.16 | 19.61% | 27.63% | 33.25% | 71.16% | 31.00% | 11.71% | 4.27% | 1.57% | 0.52% |
| G | New Zealand | 0.57 | 85 | 2.64 | 6.31% | 12.71% | 24.98% | 34.11% | 10.19% | 2.71% | 0.68% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| H | Spain | 2.29 | 2 | 6.50 | 69.06% | 22.56% | 6.55% | 97.02% | 64.87% | 43.01% | 29.70% | 19.06% | 11.87% |
| H | Uruguay | 1.71 | 17 | 5.07 | 24.19% | 51.61% | 17.69% | 89.22% | 44.26% | 24.44% | 12.98% | 6.37% | 3.00% |
| H | Saudi Arabia | 0.75 | 61 | 2.67 | 3.99% | 14.99% | 45.99% | 38.22% | 11.19% | 3.67% | 1.08% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
| H | Cape Verde | 0.61 | 69 | 2.33 | 2.76% | 10.85% | 29.78% | 28.59% | 7.74% | 2.32% | 0.59% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| I | France | 2.09 | 1 | 5.63 | 56.27% | 25.21% | 13.02% | 91.87% | 61.11% | 37.89% | 23.26% | 13.27% | 7.69% |
| I | Norway | 1.58 | 31 | 4.27 | 21.91% | 35.62% | 27.24% | 77.91% | 40.79% | 20.43% | 9.78% | 4.47% | 1.98% |
| I | Senegal | 1.53 | 14 | 4.10 | 17.23% | 28.29% | 35.92% | 73.87% | 37.53% | 18.46% | 8.53% | 3.86% | 1.61% |
| I | Iraq | 0.85 | 57 | 2.38 | 4.58% | 10.88% | 23.82% | 31.60% | 10.55% | 3.58% | 1.07% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| J | Argentina | 2.23 | 3 | 6.24 | 67.91% | 20.63% | 8.25% | 95.26% | 59.64% | 40.78% | 26.82% | 16.45% | 10.07% |
| J | Austria | 1.40 | 24 | 4.07 | 16.78% | 40.04% | 26.88% | 74.86% | 30.59% | 14.14% | 6.36% | 2.73% | 1.07% |
| J | Algeria | 1.18 | 28 | 3.49 | 10.33% | 25.28% | 37.98% | 61.27% | 22.96% | 9.66% | 3.72% | 1.35% | 0.47% |
| J | Jordan | 0.83 | 63 | 2.62 | 4.98% | 14.05% | 26.89% | 36.77% | 11.10% | 3.69% | 1.13% | 0.33% | 0.09% |
| K | Portugal | 1.93 | 5 | 5.50 | 51.61% | 29.10% | 13.55% | 91.21% | 56.76% | 33.34% | 18.66% | 10.32% | 5.49% |
| K | Colombia | 1.85 | 13 | 5.29 | 35.59% | 40.20% | 17.13% | 89.47% | 53.04% | 29.27% | 16.20% | 8.46% | 4.32% |
| K | Uzbekistan | 1.02 | 50 | 3.11 | 8.03% | 18.76% | 41.62% | 51.04% | 18.77% | 6.65% | 2.31% | 0.79% | 0.26% |
| K | Congo | 0.79 | 46 | 2.53 | 4.78% | 11.95% | 27.70% | 34.12% | 10.65% | 3.24% | 1.00% | 0.28% | 0.06% |
| L | England | 2.00 | 4 | 5.89 | 59.29% | 25.97% | 10.77% | 93.82% | 59.30% | 35.09% | 20.63% | 11.57% | 6.36% |
| L | Croatia | 1.64 | 11 | 4.96 | 28.32% | 43.15% | 19.99% | 86.62% | 45.30% | 22.24% | 11.39% | 5.42% | 2.47% |
| L | Panama | 0.97 | 33 | 3.21 | 8.36% | 19.82% | 42.77% | 52.33% | 18.13% | 6.39% | 2.14% | 0.66% | 0.23% |
| L | Ghana | 0.64 | 74 | 2.40 | 4.03% | 11.06% | 26.47% | 29.91% | 8.17% | 2.31% | 0.65% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
- The top 7 contenders combine to win > 50% of the time:
- Spain: 11.9%
- Argentina: 10.1%
- France: 7.7%
- England: 6.4%
- Portugal: 5.5%
- Brazil: 5.5%
- Germany: 4.5%
- Most likely host to advance: Mexico, followed by Canada, followed by United States
- Home-field advantage is huge, and Mexico has the biggest edge. This gives them the 8th-best odds at 4.5% as well, even with a subpar team (by Mexico's standards)
- Most likely group to yield thee champion: Group H, 15%, lead by Spain
- Odds a country from Europe/South America wins: 79%
- Top teams by my ratings that missed out:
- Italy (again), #17 in the world, better than 32 World Cup teams
- Denmark, #19, better than 29
- Nigeria, #26, better than 25
There are a couple of wrinkles now that the tournament has been expanded to 48 teams. For one, every team that advances has to play an extra round in the knockout stage. For another, the pairings for those knockout rounds is extremely convoluted - there is a massive 500-line deterministic lookup table to set these matchups.
Because of this, there is a high chance we get something like Argentina/Spain in the round of 32. In fact, this is the single most likely Final, yet the 4th most likely Round of 32 matchup!
Also because there are more teams and you can pretty easily advance from 3rd place in the group, the concept of "Group of Death" is perhaps a bit changed.
- The "strongest" group is Group I, France/Norway/Senegal/Iraq
- France, Norway, and Senegal still each have 70%+ chance to advance. Iraq is the lone team facing long odds (32%)
However, the "Group of Death" has historically been used to describe the hardest group to get out of. In this sense, we probably want the most evenly matched group, since finishing in 4th place automatically eliminates you, but finishing in 3rd gives you a pretty high chance to advance (8 out of 12 third place advance). This is described by the group with the smallest spread in team quality, i.e. #1 and #4 are close together. - The group with the smallest spread in teams - Group D, United States/Turkiye/Paraguay/Australia
- All 4 teams have better than 50% chance to advance, but none have better than 80%
- Second smallest spread - Group A, Mexico/South Korea/Czechia/South Africa
- Luckiest draw: Canada
- Unluckiest draw: Austria
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