I've simulated the World Cup 100,000 times, and there are two dozen teams that advance 75% of the time or more - led by household names like Spain, Argentina, England, Brazil, etc. And a bunch of teams came out strong in their first game, winning their opening match by multiple goals, thus logging 3 points and a positive goal differential (including Germany, France, United States, England, Colombia, etc).
So a better question is how likely are you to advance, given you achieve 3 points? 4 points? etc?
The short answer is with only 3 points (1 win and 2 losses) it's a coin flip, but only 4 points (1 win and 1 draw) virtually guarantees to advance with the new third place format.
In fact, there are expected to be 3.73 knockout qualifiers with 3 points, meaning around 3 or 4 teams will finish with exactly 3 points, yet advance anyway. This is extremely likely to happen - in 96% of simulations, at least one team advanced on only 3 points.
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